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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  DevOps Blameless Postmortem |  Operations Learning Review |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | After an incident with damage or a near miss, the method creates a sober field for learning without assigning blame. It directs attention to the course of events, conditions, and effective countermeasures. | After a project phase with mixed results, the method makes learning from the individual case reusable. It connects events, decisions, and systemic conditions into robust insights. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 10-30 min je Item | 30-90 min | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 3-12 | 3-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Postmortem Doc, Action Items, Timeline | Learning Review Notes, System Factors, Improvement Actions |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | Site Reliability EngineeringIncidentLearningReliability | LearningRetrospectiveIncidentOperations |