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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Operations A3 Problem Solving |  Operations Gemba Walk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | For a complex deviation with several people involved, the method bundles problem, analysis, and decision onto one page. It creates a shared working space where causes, countermeasures, and follow-up fit together. | When there is uncertainty about the real course of a process, the method brings observation to the place where work happens. It combines perception, follow-up questions, and process knowledge so decisions rest on actual workflows instead of assumptions. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 10-30 min je Item | 45-90 min | 30-120 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 2-5 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | A3 Report, Action Plan, Root Cause Analysis | Observation Notes, Improvement Ideas |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | LeanProblem solvingCoachingOperations | LeanObservationProcessOperations |