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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Product Discovery Test Card |  Product Strategy DIBB |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success. | DIBB helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities by making the logic behind a decision explicit. It captures results as a DIBB document, belief list, bet list, and learning report. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 20-35 min | 1-2 h | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-5 | 2-8 | 2-6 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Test Card with a pre-set threshold | DIBB document, Belief list, Bet list, Learning report | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis | StrategyDecisionAssumptionsHypothesis | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions |