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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Product Discovery Test Card |  Agile Bucket System |  Product Discovery Experiment Canvas |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success. | When a large batch of work needs a fast, rough estimate, it sorts items into predefined size buckets. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as a Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, and Split Candidates. | When experiments become unreadable after the fact, it arranges hypothesis, signal, and learning goal on a single canvas. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a Completed Experiment Canvas and a Success Metric. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 20-35 min | 30-90 min | 30-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-5 | 3-12 | 1-5 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Test Card with a pre-set threshold | Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, Split Candidates | Completed Experiment Canvas, Success Metric |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis |