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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Agile Story Points |  Agile Planning Poker |  Agile Ideal Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When teams want to rate complexity rather than hours, it creates a shared, relative scale. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Point Estimates, Reference Stories, and Velocity Data. | When estimates within the team diverge too much, it puts differing expectations on a common test bench. It separates rough complexity from unspoken assumptions. | When effort needs to be thought of as real working time, it offers a simple common denominator for comparison. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, and Capacity Caveats. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | laufend, 1-5 min je Item | 2-5 min je Item | 15-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-9 | 3-9 | 2-9 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Point Estimates, Reference Stories, Velocity Data | Relative Estimates, Assumption Notes, Split Candidates | Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, Capacity Caveats |
Tags1 shared | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationAgileMeasurement | EstimationAgileRelative sizingTeam | EstimationEffortAgile |