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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Systems Thinking Soft Systems Methodology |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | Soft Systems Methodology helps explore unclear or politically charged problems systematically. Instead of forcing a quick answer, the method builds a shared understanding of perspectives and room for action. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 0.5-3 Tage | 30-90 min | 60-120 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 5-15 | 1-10 | 3-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Rich Picture, Root Definitions, Conceptual Models, Change Agenda | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | Soft systemsComplexitySensemakingSystems thinking | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals |