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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Agile ROAM Board |  Growth A/B Testing |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When work needs to move between different states or columns, it makes that movement and its handoffs legible. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as a ROAM Board and an Owner List. | When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 20-40 min initial, dann laufend | 1-4 Wochen | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-15 | 1-6 | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | ROAM Board, Owner List | Experiment results, Decision log, Learning summary | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | RiskAgileTrackingAlignment | ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth |