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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Red Teaming |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Decision Making Cynefin Workshop |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | For strategic decisions with high reach, agreement and gut feeling are often not enough. Red teaming brings deliberate opposition into the situation and tests where a plan breaks under real counterarguments. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | When problems are unclear, chaotic, or only seemingly familiar, standard recipes fall short. A Cynefin Workshop sorts situations by the nature of their problem and connects them with matching action logic. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 1-4 h | 20–45 min | 60-180 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-8 | Small cross-functional group | 4-20 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Challenge Findings, Risk Register, Mitigation Plan | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Cynefin Map, Domain-specific Actions, Sensemaking Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | RiskDecisionSensemaking | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | ComplexitySensemakingDecision |