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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Red Teaming |  Product Strategy DIBB |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | For strategic decisions with high reach, agreement and gut feeling are often not enough. Red teaming brings deliberate opposition into the situation and tests where a plan breaks under real counterarguments. | DIBB helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities by making the logic behind a decision explicit. It captures results as a DIBB document, belief list, bet list, and learning report. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 1-4 h | 1-2 h | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-8 | 2-8 | 1-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Challenge Findings, Risk Register, Mitigation Plan | DIBB document, Belief list, Bet list, Learning report | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | RiskDecisionSensemaking | StrategyDecisionAssumptionsHypothesis | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight |