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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Business Strategy VRIO Framework |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | The VRIO Framework rates resources and capabilities on whether they are Valuable, Rare, Inimitable, and Organized. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a VRIO table and strategic actions. | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 20–45 min | 90-180 min | 0.5-2 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | Small cross-functional group | 3-6 | 4-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | VRIO Table, Strategic Actions | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | StrategyDiagnosisBusiness modelCapability | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning |