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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Product Discovery Test Card |  Product Discovery Fake Door Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success. | When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 20–45 min | 20-35 min | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | Small cross-functional group | 1-5 | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Test Card with a pre-set threshold | Click Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis | ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery |