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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Decision Making Red Teaming |  Decision Making Constraint Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | For strategic decisions with high reach, agreement and gut feeling are often not enough. Red teaming brings deliberate opposition into the situation and tests where a plan breaks under real counterarguments. | When an initiative stalls, the limit often lies not in the idea but in hard or soft boundary conditions. Constraint Analysis separates these limits and shows which of them can actually be shaped. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 20–45 min | 1-4 h | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | Small cross-functional group | 3-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Challenge Findings, Risk Register, Mitigation Plan | Constraint List, Hard/Soft Classification, Option Impact Notes, Decision Boundaries |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | RiskDecisionSensemaking | ConstraintsDecisionPlanningOptions |