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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | High | High |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 20–45 min | 1-4 Wochen | 0.5-2 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | Small cross-functional group | 6-30 Experten | 4-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning |