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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Decision Making Decision Tree |  Decision Making Constraint Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | For decisions with follow-on paths and dependencies, a linear comparison is often not enough. A Decision Tree shows how options branch under conditions and which consequences hang on each branch. | When an initiative stalls, the limit often lies not in the idea but in hard or soft boundary conditions. Constraint Analysis separates these limits and shows which of them can actually be shaped. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 20–45 min | 30-90 min | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | Small cross-functional group | 1-6 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Decision Tree, Option Map, Assumption List | Constraint List, Hard/Soft Classification, Option Impact Notes, Decision Boundaries |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | DecisionTreeOptions | ConstraintsDecisionPlanningOptions |