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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Business Strategy Business Model Stress Test |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | A Business Model Stress Test checks how well a business model holds up under pressure and headwinds. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a stress-test report and action plan per scenario. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 20–45 min | Half day | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | Small cross-functional group | 3-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Stress Test Report, Action Plan per Scenario | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tags1 shared | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | StrategyBusiness modelRiskDiagnosis | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |