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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Agile Planning Poker |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Agile Bucket System |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When estimates within the team diverge too much, it puts differing expectations on a common test bench. It separates rough complexity from unspoken assumptions. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When a large batch of work needs a fast, rough estimate, it sorts items into predefined size buckets. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as a Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, and Split Candidates. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 2-5 min je Item | 45-90 min | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-9 | 2-8 | 3-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Relative Estimates, Assumption Notes, Split Candidates | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, Split Candidates |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationAgileRelative sizingTeam | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing |