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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Product Discovery Opportunity Solution Tree |  Product Discovery Test Card |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When discovery keeps swinging between goals, ideas, and learning loops, it creates clear steering logic. It connects the desired outcome, opportunities, and experiments into a legible structure. | The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 1-2 h Setup, laufend | 20-35 min | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-6 | 1-5 | 2-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Opportunity Solution Tree, Experiment Backlog, Learning Log | Test Card with a pre-set threshold | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | DiscoveryOutcomesExperimentsOpportunity | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |