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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making OODA Loop |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | In dynamic situations, decisions become outdated faster than they can be prepared. The OODA Loop holds observing, orienting, deciding, and acting together as a recurring rhythm so reaction does not slide into inertia. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 15-60 min je Zyklus | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 10-30 min je Item |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 4-12 Experten | 1-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Situation Assessment, Decision Loop, Action Updates | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | DecisionChangeLearningStrategy | EstimationExpertsForecasting | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting |