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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Agile NoEstimates |  Systems Thinking Leverage Points |  Business Strategy Business Model Stress Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | Leverage Points show exactly where interventions in a system produce a disproportionate effect. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a leverage map and action strategy. | A Business Model Stress Test checks how well a business model holds up under pressure and headwinds. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a stress-test report and action plan per scenario. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | laufend | Half day | Half day |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-12 | 3-12 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Leverage Map, Action Strategy | Stress Test Report, Action Plan per Scenario |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationForecastingFlow | Systems thinkingChangeStrategy | StrategyBusiness modelRiskDiagnosis |