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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Agile NoEstimates |  Growth Hooked Model |  Growth Flywheel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | The Hooked Model helps clarify engagement loops, user behavior, and experiments. It makes repeat behavior measurable and captures the result as a hooked loop, trigger map, and reward design. | Growth often breaks down where a reinforcing mechanism builds up too much friction. A Flywheel shows the cycle of value, repetition, and reinforcement meant to sustain growth. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | laufend | Multiple workshops over several weeks | 60-120 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-12 | 2-8 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Hooked loop, Trigger map, Reward design, Ethics check | Flywheel Map, Friction Points, Growth Levers, Experiment Backlog |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationForecastingFlow | GrowthBehaviorRetention | GrowthRetentionConversion |