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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Agile NoEstimates |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | laufend | 2-4 h | 10-30 min je Item |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-12 | 3-8 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationForecastingFlow | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting |