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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Agile NoEstimates |  Growth Flywheel |  Growth Hooked Model |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | Growth often breaks down where a reinforcing mechanism builds up too much friction. A Flywheel shows the cycle of value, repetition, and reinforcement meant to sustain growth. | The Hooked Model helps clarify engagement loops, user behavior, and experiments. It makes repeat behavior measurable and captures the result as a hooked loop, trigger map, and reward design. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | laufend | 60-120 min | Multiple workshops over several weeks |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-12 | 3-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Flywheel Map, Friction Points, Growth Levers, Experiment Backlog | Hooked loop, Trigger map, Reward design, Ethics check |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationForecastingFlow | GrowthRetentionConversion | GrowthBehaviorRetention |