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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Systems Thinking Leverage Points |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | Leverage Points show exactly where interventions in a system produce a disproportionate effect. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a leverage map and action strategy. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | Half day | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 10-30 min je Item |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-12 | 4-12 Experten | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Leverage Map, Action Strategy | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | Systems thinkingChangeStrategy | EstimationExpertsForecasting | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting |