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Criterion
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
Paper illustration of Leverage Points with its method-specific working model.
Systems Thinking
Leverage Points
Paper illustration for Wideband Delphi.
Decision Making
Wideband Delphi
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Purposedifferent
On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes.Leverage Points show exactly where interventions in a system produce a disproportionate effect. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a leverage map and action strategy.A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes.When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.
Complexitydifferent
MediumHighHighHigh
Timedifferent
15-45 minHalf day1-4 h or multiple rounds1-4 Wochen
Participantsdifferent
1-83-124-12 Experten6-30 Experten
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + asyncAsync
Outputdifferent
PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk NotesLeverage Map, Action StrategyEstimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus NotesExpert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyRisk
Systems thinkingChangeStrategy
EstimationExpertsForecasting
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
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