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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Systems Thinking Leverage Points |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | Leverage Points show exactly where interventions in a system produce a disproportionate effect. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a leverage map and action strategy. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | Half day | 60-120 min | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-12 | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Leverage Map, Action Strategy | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | Systems thinkingChangeStrategy | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |