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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Knowledge Modeling Knowledge Mapping |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | Knowledge Mapping makes knowledge, gaps, and transfer paths visible across a field. It fits when expertise should not just exist but also be findable and transferable. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 1-3 h | 1-4 Wochen | 1-4 h or multiple rounds |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-12 | 6-30 Experten | 4-12 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Knowledge Map, Critical Knowledge Areas, Transfer Plan | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | KnowledgeMappingRisk | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationExpertsForecasting |