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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Knowledge Modeling Knowledge Mapping |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Business Strategy Business Model Stress Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | Knowledge Mapping makes knowledge, gaps, and transfer paths visible across a field. It fits when expertise should not just exist but also be findable and transferable. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A Business Model Stress Test checks how well a business model holds up under pressure and headwinds. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a stress-test report and action plan per scenario. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 1-3 h | 1-4 Wochen | Half day |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-12 | 6-30 Experten | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Knowledge Map, Critical Knowledge Areas, Transfer Plan | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Stress Test Report, Action Plan per Scenario |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | KnowledgeMappingRisk | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | StrategyBusiness modelRiskDiagnosis |