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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Systems Thinking Intervention Mapping |  Decision Making OODA Loop |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | Intervention Mapping translates a need for change into a planned, evaluable program. The method connects target group, determinants, actions, and measurement into a traceable chain. | In dynamic situations, decisions become outdated faster than they can be prepared. The OODA Loop holds observing, orienting, deciding, and acting together as a recurring rhythm so reaction does not slide into inertia. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 1-5 Tage | 15-60 min je Zyklus | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 4-12 | 1-8 | 2-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Logic Model, Change Objectives, Intervention Components, Evaluation Plan | Situation Assessment, Decision Loop, Action Updates | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | ChangeSystems thinkingCapability | DecisionChangeLearningStrategy | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |