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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Product Strategy Impact Mapping |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When a goal needs to be connected to several possible paths, it shows chains of impact instead of feature lists. It connects business goal, behavior change, and measures. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 45-90 min | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 0.5-2 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-8 | 4-12 Experten | 4-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Impact Map, Outcome Hypotheses, Delivery Options | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | OutcomesStrategyBehaviorPlanning | EstimationExpertsForecasting | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning |