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Criterion
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
Paper illustration of a branching impact map with a Why goal at the root, actor circles, How behavior changes and What options.
Product Strategy
Impact Mapping
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Purposedifferent
On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes.When a goal needs to be connected to several possible paths, it shows chains of impact instead of feature lists. It connects business goal, behavior change, and measures.When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.
Complexitydifferent
MediumMediumHighMedium
Timedifferent
15-45 min45-90 min1-4 Wochen10-30 min je Item
Participantsdifferent
1-83-86-30 Experten1-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk NotesImpact Map, Outcome Hypotheses, Delivery OptionsExpert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesThree-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyRisk
OutcomesStrategyBehaviorPlanning
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
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