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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Product Strategy Impact Mapping |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When a goal needs to be connected to several possible paths, it shows chains of impact instead of feature lists. It connects business goal, behavior change, and measures. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 45-90 min | 1-4 Wochen | 0.5-2 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-8 | 6-30 Experten | 4-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Impact Map, Outcome Hypotheses, Delivery Options | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | OutcomesStrategyBehaviorPlanning | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning |