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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Product Strategy Impact Mapping |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When a goal needs to be connected to several possible paths, it shows chains of impact instead of feature lists. It connects business goal, behavior change, and measures. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 45-90 min | 1-4 Wochen | 20–45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-8 | 6-30 Experten | Small cross-functional group |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Impact Map, Outcome Hypotheses, Delivery Options | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | OutcomesStrategyBehaviorPlanning | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning |