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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Agile Ideal Days |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Business Strategy GAP Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When effort needs to be thought of as real working time, it offers a simple common denominator for comparison. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, and Capacity Caveats. | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | GAP Analysis compares the current state with a target picture and makes the distance manageable. It becomes useful when, ahead of new initiatives, it must become clear which capabilities, processes, or resources are missing. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 15-60 min | 0.5-2 Tage | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-9 | 4-12 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, Capacity Caveats | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Gap Matrix, Action Plan, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationEffortAgile | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | StrategyAnalysisPlanning |