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Criterion
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
Paper illustration of an IBIS map with issues, positions and arguments
Knowledge Modeling
IBIS
A/B Testing workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Growth
A/B Testing
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes.IBIS structures thinking about complex questions as a sequence of issues, ideas, and arguments. The method keeps discussions open without forcing them into premature consensus.When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
MediumMediumHighMedium
Timedifferent
15-45 min1-3 h1-4 Wochen45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
1-82-81-62-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk NotesIssue Map, Positions, Argument NotesExperiment results, Decision log, Learning summaryAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyRisk
RationaleKnowledgeDecision
ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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