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Criterion
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
Paper illustration of Hooked Model with its method-specific working model.
Growth
Hooked Model
A/B Testing workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Growth
A/B Testing
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes.The Hooked Model helps clarify engagement loops, user behavior, and experiments. It makes repeat behavior measurable and captures the result as a hooked loop, trigger map, and reward design.When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
MediumMediumHighMedium
Timedifferent
15-45 minMultiple workshops over several weeks1-4 Wochen45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
1-82-81-62-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk NotesHooked loop, Trigger map, Reward design, Ethics checkExperiment results, Decision log, Learning summaryAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyRisk
GrowthBehaviorRetention
ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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