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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Business Strategy GAP Analysis |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | GAP Analysis compares the current state with a target picture and makes the distance manageable. It becomes useful when, ahead of new initiatives, it must become clear which capabilities, processes, or resources are missing. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 1-3 h | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 0.5-2 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 4-12 Experten | 4-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Gap Matrix, Action Plan, Risk Notes | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | StrategyAnalysisPlanning | EstimationExpertsForecasting | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning |