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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Business Strategy GAP Analysis |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | GAP Analysis compares the current state with a target picture and makes the distance manageable. It becomes useful when, ahead of new initiatives, it must become clear which capabilities, processes, or resources are missing. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 1-3 h | 1-5 Tage | 0.5-2 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | Nutzertraffic | 4-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Gap Matrix, Action Plan, Risk Notes | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | StrategyAnalysisPlanning | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning |