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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Business Strategy GAP Analysis |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | GAP Analysis compares the current state with a target picture and makes the distance manageable. It becomes useful when, ahead of new initiatives, it must become clear which capabilities, processes, or resources are missing. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 1-3 h | 45-90 min | 0.5-2 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 2-8 | 4-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Gap Matrix, Action Plan, Risk Notes | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | StrategyAnalysisPlanning | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning |