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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 2-4 h | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration | 60-120 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-8 | 2-6 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking |