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Criterion
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
Paper illustration of the Force Field Analysis working structure.
Decision Making
Force Field Analysis
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration for Wideband Delphi.
Decision Making
Wideband Delphi
Purposedifferent
On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes.In change initiatives, supporting and restraining forces sit at the table at the same time. Force Field Analysis makes these tensions explicit and shows where change can be pushed forward by strengthening or relieving.When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowHighHigh
Timedifferent
15-45 min45-90 min1-4 Wochen1-4 h or multiple rounds
Participantsdifferent
1-83-126-30 Experten4-12 Experten
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk NotesForce Field Map, Change Levers, Risk NotesExpert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesEstimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyRisk
ChangeDecisionStrategy
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
EstimationExpertsForecasting
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