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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Force Field Analysis |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | In change initiatives, supporting and restraining forces sit at the table at the same time. Force Field Analysis makes these tensions explicit and shows where change can be pushed forward by strengthening or relieving. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 45-90 min | 1-4 Wochen | 10-30 min je Item |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-12 | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Force Field Map, Change Levers, Risk Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | ChangeDecisionStrategy | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting |