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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Growth Flywheel |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Growth Funnel Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | Growth often breaks down where a reinforcing mechanism builds up too much friction. A Flywheel shows the cycle of value, repetition, and reinforcement meant to sustain growth. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When many visitors or users drop off along the way, the reason behind the number often stays hidden. Funnel Analysis exposes these transitions and makes visible exactly where the path collapses. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 60-120 min | 45-90 min | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-8 | 2-8 | 1-5 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Flywheel Map, Friction Points, Growth Levers, Experiment Backlog | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Funnel report, Drop-off analysis, Optimization hypotheses |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | GrowthRetentionConversion | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | AnalyticsConversionGrowth |