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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Product Discovery Experiment Canvas |  Product Discovery Test Card |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When experiments become unreadable after the fact, it arranges hypothesis, signal, and learning goal on a single canvas. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a Completed Experiment Canvas and a Success Metric. | The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 30-60 min | 20-35 min | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-5 | 1-5 | 2-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Completed Experiment Canvas, Success Metric | Test Card with a pre-set threshold | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |