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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Knowledge Modeling Event Modeling |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Agile NoEstimates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | Event Modeling connects business workflows with commands, events, and views into one coherent mental model. It helps design behavior, UI, and technical slices from the same underlying logic. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 2-6 h | 10-30 min je Item | laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 1-8 | 2-12 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Event Model, UI Flow, Commands, Read Models | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EventsBlueprintDomain-Driven DesignBehavior | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | EstimationForecastingFlow |