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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Product Strategy DIBB |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | DIBB helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities by making the logic behind a decision explicit. It captures results as a DIBB document, belief list, bet list, and learning report. | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 1-2 h | 0.5-2 Tage | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 4-12 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | DIBB document, Belief list, Bet list, Learning report | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | StrategyDecisionAssumptionsHypothesis | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |