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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Business Strategy Value Chain Analysis |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Value Chain Analysis shows where value is created, costs accrue, and differentiation becomes possible along the process. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a value-chain map and lever list. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High | High |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 1-4 Wochen | Half day | 1-4 h or multiple rounds |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten | 3-8 | 4-12 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Value Chain Map, Lever List | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | StrategyBusiness modelDiagnosisAnalysis | EstimationExpertsForecasting |