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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Red Teaming |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | For strategic decisions with high reach, agreement and gut feeling are often not enough. Red teaming brings deliberate opposition into the situation and tests where a plan breaks under real counterarguments. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 1-4 Wochen | 1-4 h | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten | 3-8 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Challenge Findings, Risk Register, Mitigation Plan | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | RiskDecisionSensemaking | SensemakingDecisionRationale |