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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 1-4 Wochen | 20–45 min | 1-4 h or multiple rounds |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten | Small cross-functional group | 4-12 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | EstimationExpertsForecasting |