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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Strategy DIBB |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | DIBB helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities by making the logic behind a decision explicit. It captures results as a DIBB document, belief list, bet list, and learning report. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 1-4 Wochen | 1-2 h | 1-4 h or multiple rounds |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | 4-12 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | DIBB document, Belief list, Bet list, Learning report | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | StrategyDecisionAssumptionsHypothesis | EstimationExpertsForecasting |