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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Cynefin Workshop |  Decision Making Red Teaming |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When problems are unclear, chaotic, or only seemingly familiar, standard recipes fall short. A Cynefin Workshop sorts situations by the nature of their problem and connects them with matching action logic. | For strategic decisions with high reach, agreement and gut feeling are often not enough. Red teaming brings deliberate opposition into the situation and tests where a plan breaks under real counterarguments. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 1-4 Wochen | 60-180 min | 1-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten | 4-20 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Cynefin Map, Domain-specific Actions, Sensemaking Notes | Challenge Findings, Risk Register, Mitigation Plan |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ComplexitySensemakingDecision | RiskDecisionSensemaking |